Oscars 2026 Predictions
Movie review

Oscars 2026 Predictions

My Choices and Predictions

Jump to review Review by Saulo Ferreira • Mar 15, 2026 • 2 min read
Where to watchPre-production

My Choices and Predictions

My Choices and Predictions

Oscar night is upon us. Predicting these awards has been a tradition of mine since 2009, and this year is no different.

This year, it all comes down to a Warner Bros. showdown: Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another versus Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. Both great films were highly successful with critics and audiences alike. The former has been the favorite since it premiered to glowing reviews in September and went on to win most of the guilds and major precursors. Sinners, however, received a record-breaking 16 nominations, won the Actors Guild Award for Best Ensemble, and even saw its lead, Michael B. Jordan, pull off a surprising Best Actor win. Since the actors branch makes up roughly 20% of the Academy, and the love for Sinners in the other categories is impossible to ignore, many predict it might pull an upset.

Still, I think PTA will ultimately prevail, mostly because of his overdue status and because the film’s political theme feels a little more tied to the moment we are living in (that and the fact that Sinners has vampires, which might not appeal to older members of the Academy). It is the same logic that makes me lean toward The Secret Agent over Sentimental Value in the International Feature category.

I have these two films winning a combined 11 of the 20 film categories, with Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein taking 3 technical Oscars, and Sony and Netflix’s huge hit KPop Demon Hunters winning 2. I also have Hamnet, The Secret Agent (which would give Brazil its second Oscar in a row), F1, and Avatar: Fire and Ash, each winning one. Despite being my favorite film of the year, I am predicting Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, along with Train Dreams, Marty Supreme and Bugonia, to go home empty-handed.

Below, you will find who I believe will win, who might win, and who should win if it were my choice.

🏆 Will Win
🤔 Could Win
🤞 Should Win

Best Picture

One Battle After Another (2025) backdrop

I really have a hard time seeing One Battle After Another lose here. Yes, Sinners won Best Casting and received 16 nominations, but One Battle took the DGA, the PGA, and the Golden Globes. Its themes feel more directly tied to the moment we are living in, and I also suspect not all Academy voters will be ready to embrace a vampire horror film in their top category.

Best Director

paul thomas one battle after another

Paul Thomas Anderson has now been nominated for 14 Oscars in total, with 4 of those in Best Director. One Battle After Another may not be his best film, but much like The Departed for Scorsese, it feels like his most accessible, and a strong opportunity to reward his whole career. It is also masterfully directed, with its 2 hours and 40 minutes flying by, and a fantastic balance of tones throughout. Coogler is certainly a great director, but Sinners does not feel nearly as confident as the other nominees, especially in its two post-credit sequences and rushed climax. Of the five, he would be my last-place choice.

Best Actor

Sinners (2025) backdrop

I am very torn on this one. Chalamet has been the frontrunner for a long time, though his arrogance seems to have rubbed some people the wrong way. Had he made that controversial comment about ballet and opera a few days earlier, he might have been completely out of the running. Instead, it came just after voting closed. Michael B. Jordan’s performance is arguably the weakest among the nominees, and I still think the film would have worked better either by fully embracing the twins as true leads or by pushing them further into supporting roles and centering Sammy even more. Still, I am going with Jordan, because the reaction in the room when his name was announced at the Actors Guild Awards was undeniable. But I am far from certain.

Best Actress

Hamnet (2025) backdrop

The easiest category to predict. Jessie Buckley won all the precursors, and her performance is very showy. I love Hamnet and her performance, so I am very happy with the win. But I can’t deny that I would like it a little bit more if Reinsve got recognized for her fantastic turn in Sentimental Value.

Best Supporting Actor

Delroy-Lindo-Sinners-2

My first big swing. Delroy Lindo has not been nominated anywhere prior to the Oscars, yet Sinners late surge might very much benefit him here. He got to speak in the Actor’s Best Ensemble win, while Sean Penn, who won Best Supporting Actor, wasn’t in the ceremony.

Best Supporting Actress

one-battle-after-another

And here I am doing the opposite. Taylor has only won the Globes, but I think the love for the film will benefit her here. She leaves a huge mark on the film, even though her character only appears in the first act. Mosaku won the BAFTA, but her character isn’t Sinners‘ most memorable (that would be the trio of supporting players of Lindo, Caton, and O’Connell). The Actor winner, veteran Amy Madigan, has a great shot and might be the sanest choice, but I do think this category will be the first sign of One Battle After Another‘s strength.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Easy.

Best Original Screenplay

Also very easy.

Best Animated Feature

Three animated female characters with diverse hairstyles and expressions of surprise, wearing black outfits.

I would love to see a smaller animated film winning again, as I don’t think KPop is all that special, but there is no way it is losing.

Best International Feature

The Secret Agent (2025) backdrop

I think The Secret Agent‘s political themes might push it to win. Sentimental Value (and even Sirat) would be more deserving, but having the Academy recognize Brazil again would be a treat, even if I am not the biggest fan of the movie.

Best Casting

I think the casting of Marty Supreme is extremely inspired, but this race comes down to the two frontrunners, with Sinners having the edge. It is a true ensemble piece, and the casting team deserves enormous credit for discovering Miles Caton.

Best Cinematography

See my ranking here.

Best Costume Design

Meh.

Best Film Editing

In my opinion, editing is One Battle After Another’s strongest attribute. The whole film flows beautifully, and every second feels important despite its 160 minute runtime. The climactic car chase should be studied in film classes. It would be a very deserving winner.

Best Original Score

Another easy win for Sinners.

Best Original Song

  • “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
  • “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters 🏆🤞
  • “I Lied to You” from Sinners 🤔
  • “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!
  • “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

“Golden” is a huge hit and the better song.

Best Production Design

Meh.

Best Sound

It would be very cool if Sirat won, but it will never happen. F1 sound is too loud and showy to lose.

Best Visual Effects

If anyone votes against Avatar: Fire and Ash, their Academy membership should be revoked.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

I would love to see any other film win this, as I really did not like Frankenstein‘s make-up. But it will absolutely win.

Best Documentary Feature

  • The Alabama Solution
  • Come See Me in the Good Light
  • Cutting Through Rocks
  • Mr. Nobody Against Putin
  • The Perfect Neighbor

Did not see all the nominees in this category, and in the short film categories, so I’m abstaining from voting.

Best Documentary Short

  • All the Empty Rooms
  • Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
  • Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
  • The Devil Is Busy
  • Perfectly a Strangeness

Best Animated Short

  • Butterfly
  • Forevergreen
  • The Girl Who Cried Pearls
  • Retirement Plan
  • The Three Sisters

Best Live Action Short

  • Butcher’s Stain
  • A Friend of Dorothy
  • Jane Austen’s Period Drama
  • The Singers
  • Two People Exchanging Saliva

The Oscars will take place on Sunday, Mar. 15, 2026, from 7:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. and, in Canada, can be watched live on CTV or streamed on Crave. The red carpet show begins at 6:30 p.m. ET.

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